Abhay Venkatesh

Sovereignty Gaps

July 28, 2026. Originally published as an article on X, where discussion continues. A follow-up, Requests for Startups, lists gaps worth closing.

Ambrogio Lorenzetti, Allegory of Bad Government, fresco in the Palazzo Pubblico, Siena
Ambrogio Lorenzetti, "Allegory of Bad Government" (c. 1338–1339), Palazzo Pubblico, Siena. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
Don't make something people want, make something the system needs[1]

It is customary to describe startups as bottoms-up phenomena. The concept itself "start-up" seems to suggest that you start (from the bottom), and go up. We're all familiar with the "startup myth" (it is funny that they all seem to start in the exact same way). An eccentric founder in a garage. They have a brilliant idea—the light bulb moment—and by sheer force of insight or persistence, the idea propagates outward until it reshapes the world. Unfortunately, this story is appealing not because it is true, but because it flatters our modern, post-enlightenment[2] self conceptions: that merit is self-certifying[3].

There is a sense in which "myth" isn't entirely false[4]: new companies do begin small, founders do have ideas[5], and users are consulted. And yet, at the same time, the story fails to account for a striking regularity: that enduring companies rarely emerge without early recognition from a narrow set of institutions whose approval appears neither accidental nor evenly distributed.

For example, how does one explain the strange phenomenon of respected figures in the startup world often providing contradictory advice? One camp of figures have long insisted on the need to obsessively talk to users. However, some counsel the opposite, that one must take a more Steve Jobs-like approach of having an ESP-link to the users[6], or even better, telling the users what they want. The truth can't be both A and not A at the same time. So maybe the "advice" points to something entirely orthogonal.

What is consistent about successful startups, therefore, is not the method, but the presence of recognition. At some point, often early, sometimes invisibly, the project is judged as legitimate by actors whose judgment has consequences. This recognition need not be public, unanimous, or even articulated. It is sufficient that it exists.

Legitimacy[7], in this sense, is not created by users, and neither is it fully manufactured by founders[8]. It is conferred, directly or indirectly, by institutions that already possess it. Venture capital firms are one such layer, but they are not the origin. Their authority too, is borrowed.

Without dwelling into too many details, here is the rough framework of legitimacy:

The institutions[11] at the top of the food chain have broad mandates; they're less concerned about the shape of the next iPhone and more about the future of civilization[12].

Sovereignty Gaps Introduced

Claude Monet, La Gare Saint-Lazare, 1877
Claude Monet, "La Gare Saint-Lazare" (1877), Musée d'Orsay. The original article used Giorgio de Chirico's "Gare Montparnasse (The Melancholy of Departure)" (1914), which is still under copyright in Europe.

From this perspective, building a company is less a matter of discovering what individuals want than of aligning with needs that are rarely spoken plainly. To create a truly massive enterprise, you need to be thinking on the systemic level. These needs arise when the structure of the social order as we know is under strain, and when no established institution can respond without exceeding its mandate. The gap that opens is not immediately visible as a "market" but felt more as a pressure[13].

The successful founder does not invent this pressure. He encounters it, often indirectly, and often without fully understanding it. To this extent it makes sense to "listen to users", to the extent that you're attending to pressures that surface first at the periphery, but originate from deeper structural constraints[14]. I call this pressure sovereignty gaps: situations in which the central structures of society require a function that they themselves cannot perform, and therefore tolerate—and in some cases give rise to conditions that permit—the emergence of new actors ("founders") to perform it on their behalf.

In liberal political orders, these gaps often arise not because the state lacks the desire to perform a function, but because it cannot perform that function directly without exceeding its legal, political, or institutional remit. A company can coordinate private property, capital, labor, and information in ways that formal public institutions cannot. The company does not simply replace the state. It becomes an indirect institutional form through which a required sovereign function can be executed.

It is worth clarifying the scope of the argument. Not every successful company is the direct result of a sovereignty gap, nor does the framework claim that all valuable businesses arise from such conditions. Many companies achieve meaningful scale by improving local efficiency, serving narrow verticals, or exploiting temporary technological asymmetries. These outcomes can be substantial, and in some cases highly profitable.

The claim here is narrower and stronger: the largest, most durable, and most systemically consequential enterprises tend to emerge where sovereignty gaps are present—whether addressed directly or indirectly. In practice, many firms that appear non-sovereign are better understood as derivative infrastructures, supplying coordination, tooling, or surplus capacity to actors engaged in resolving deeper structural demands, e.g. Slack is used by Palantir, a company directly plugging a sovereignty gap. Others succeed by operating downstream of gaps already being addressed elsewhere. The distinction is therefore not between "real" and "fake" companies, but between enterprises that resolve local inefficiencies and those that stabilize or reconfigure the social order itself.

That every great company is a plug to a sovereignty gap is an uncomfortable idea, and undoubtedly invites skepticism. It appears to diminish the role of creativity, ingenuity, and the independent fearlessness of individuals to drive change in history. That's not my intention. All of those still matter. My argument is more about how those energies should be channeled, and I think the way in which it normally is, is woefully misguided.

Before dismissing this contrarian account of startups, let us examine some examples.

Sovereignty Gaps Addressed

The Sovereignty Gap addressed by Google

Declassified 1979 letter from the National Security Agency to the Attorney General about James Bamford's Freedom of Information Act requests
Image source: "NSA wanted to use the Espionage Act to prosecute a journalist for using FOIA", MuckRock. Declassified NSA letter, August 1979.

The standard history of Google goes something like this: two Stanford graduate students and an "unofficial third founder," Scott Hassan[15], tinkering away on a research project to index the internet[16]. A classic "garage startup" myth; strangely identical to every other Silicon Valley origin story.

But what if this is mostly the wrong causal explanation? What if Google emerged not purely from tinkering but from addressing a yawning sovereignty gap: the explosive growth of the early internet—effectively a civilization-scale information substrate—that had created a massive, unmet requirement to make the data on this system navigable and searchable? In this view, PageRank was not merely a whimsical hack; it was an answer to a structural absence.

How did they find out about this sovereignty gap? While causal attribution is necessarily incomplete, Brin and Page[17] were situated within research ecosystems that were shaped by prevailing research priorities and funding structures of the period[18]. Whether or not this exposed them to the sovereignty gap directly, it certainly placed them near it[19]. As a consequence of plugging this sovereignty gap, they created one of the most robust monopolies of all time.

The Sovereignty Gap addressed by Meta

Header of the DARPA IPTO solicitation page for BAA 03-30, LifeLog, Proposer Information Pamphlet, 2003
Image source: DARPA IPTO, BAA 03-30 LifeLog Proposer Information Pamphlet (2003), via the Internet Archive. See also DARPA LifeLog.

Another classic Silicon Valley story is the story of Facebook. How did it start? Apparently it was just a nerdy guy at Harvard who wanted to get laid. So he made this company. That may well all be true, but there are hundreds if not thousands of nerdy guys at Harvard who also want to get laid but don't end up starting a trillion dollar company.

What made Facebook different from the dozens and dozens of other hackathon projects that emanate from Stanford, MIT, or Harvard is that it addressed a sovereignty gap: the informational visibility gap created by the early internet. There is a strange phenomenon of DARPA LifeLog[20], a project that "captures, stores, and makes accessible the flow of one person's experience in and interactions with the world in order to support a broad spectrum of associates/assistants and other system capabilities". The period also coincided with the winding down of several ambitious state-led attempts to formalize large-scale social data collection[21].

We pick the examples of Google or Meta[22] which are a lot less obvious than the examples of SpaceX[23], Palantir[24], or Oracle[25] (or even Apple, Microsoft, or OpenAI[26], or even Bitcoin[27])[28].

Sovereignty-gap companies frequently possess two products at once. The exoteric product is the one presented to users: search, maps, social connection, transportation, payments, or convenience. The esoteric function is the systemic capability created underneath: information retrieval, population legibility, geographic intelligence, labor coordination, identity, or financial control. The consumer product supplies legitimacy and distribution; the sovereign function supplies durability and power.

Finding Sovereignty Gaps

Causal network diagram of the global polycrisis, showing stresses, triggers, and crises cascading from pandemic to inflation, financial crisis, war, famine, and civil violence
"Domino effects in the global polycrisis", Figure 8 from Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Scott Janzwood, Johan Rockström, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan F. Donges, "Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement", Global Sustainability 7 (2024), doi:10.1017/sus.2024.1. Figure design by Jacob Buurma. Licensed CC BY 4.0. The original article used Adam Tooze's schematic of the polycrisis, reproduced from "The 'polycrisis' and global development finance: options and dilemmas", Development Policy Centre.

One way to find sovereignty gaps is to think in terms of "crises". You could think in terms of the housing crisis, climate crisis, pension crisis, debt crisis, or fertility crisis. Or perhaps yet another set of crises will emerge as part of the biggest technological changes. In our time, that is AI.

More generally, identifying sovereignty gaps requires attentiveness to systemic pressure rather than explicit demand[29]. Large gaps rarely announce themselves as opportunities; they are first experienced as tensions—coordination failures, silent breakdowns, or chronic inefficiencies that everyone privately recognizes but few can articulate clearly. These pressures tend to surface unevenly, often at the periphery, before becoming legible at the level of policy or markets.

These pressures are communicated by the center[30]—the shared focal point of a society—the locus[31] where attention, norms, authority, and coordination converge. It is not a single actor or institution, but the structural point around which the social order stabilizes. When strain accumulates at this locus, the resulting pressure is felt system-wide, long before it is formally acknowledged. Sovereignty gaps arise precisely in these moments, when something essential must work for the system to hold together, yet no existing institution can address it without exceeding its remit.

Detecting a sovereignty gap is not merely a matter of brainstorming or ideation. Startups created purely at the whiteboard tend to fail. Instead, it is something closer to refining perception, a way of listening to reality and figuring out what is off. Sovereignty gaps announce themselves through a kind of background hum: rising tensions, silent failures, things everyone privately feels but cannot publicly articulate[32]. To sense these cracks, you cannot rely on frameworks or idea-generation hacks; you must train yourself to notice the subtle dissonance between what the system appears to be doing and what is actually being demanded of it.

So rather than trying to "come up with a startup idea," the more reliable approach is to attend to these pressures and ask what function is missing. If Google was created in response to the data search crisis that came out of the internet, what company would be created in response to the crises emanating due to AI? That company may end up being the largest company of all time.

Some examples of AI crises may be: mass psychosis, mass job loss, population control (or loss of it thereof), proliferation of AI weapon systems, geopolitical instability, cyber instability, financial instability due to centralization of the economy on AI, and more[33]. These may very well be unaddressed sovereignty gaps that will be plugged by the next Zuckerberg.

Acknowledgements

Rembrandt, The Anatomy Lesson of Dr. Nicolaes Tulp, 1632
Rembrandt, "The Anatomy Lesson of Dr. Nicolaes Tulp" (1632), Mauritshuis. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

I would like to thank John Luttig, Jon Goldsmith, Sebastian Caliri, Alexa Liautaud, Taggart Bonham, Aashay Sanghvi, Selina Wang, Bryan Offutt, Christina Stankey, Dan Robinson, David Song, John Suh, Arjun Das, Michael Tan, Sami Senapathy, Aden Clemente, Aadi Saha, Varun Shenoy, Theo Marcu, Divya Gupta, Tina He, and others for their feedback on this document.

References

  1. Questions of "what the system requires" are often obscured by consumer preference signals; see Carl Schmitt, Political Theology: Four Chapters on the Concept of Sovereignty (1922), on necessity and the exception.
  2. Leo Strauss has in fact suggested that the "Enlightenment" is better renamed as "Obscuring". For discussions of why canonical narratives often obscure rather than reveal causal structure, see Strauss, Persecution and the Art of Writing.
  3. So why have the lie at all? Myths often persist not because they are false, but because they perform stabilizing social functions; see Georges Sorel, Reflections on Violence (1908), and Hans Blumenberg, Work on Myth (1979).
  4. For example in "The Alchemy of Finance" George Soros talks about a feeling he would get in his low back on certain forex trades. As it turns out, the low back feeling was intel from CIA on foreign color revolutions.
  5. No Ideas but in Companies, No Companies but through Sovereignty
  6. "Steve Jobs didn't ask customers what they wanted; he knew what they would want before they did (Peter Thiel, Zero to One (2014), chapters on monopoly and founder vision)".
  7. See The Notion of Authority by Alexandre Kojève for more on legitimacy, or even Carl Schmitt on Legality and Legitimacy.
  8. See Pierre Bourdieu, "The Forms of Capital," in Handbook of Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education (1986). Bourdieu distinguishes symbolic capital from economic capital and shows how legitimacy is transmitted through institutions that already possess recognized authority, rather than generated de novo by individuals or markets.
  9. See CAPITAL AS POWER: A Study of Order and Creorder for an account of this top down view of capital, including empirical evidence. Capital and power exist in a thermodynamic relationship with each other.
  10. For historical discussions of how large pools of capital intersect with state capacity and monetary authority, see Fernand Braudel, Civilization and Capitalism, 15th–18th Century, Vol. II: The Wheels of Commerce (1982), and James Burnham, The Managerial Revolution (1941).
  11. See @rabois, "Time for some of you to learn history" for the history of the valley, and Steve Blank, Secret History.
  12. Certain large institutional investors operate under statutory and regulatory regimes that explicitly integrate national security considerations into capital allocation decisions. For an explicit example of intelligence institutions participating directly in venture investment, see In-Q-Tel, the strategic investment organization established by the CIA. For historical analysis of how intelligence agencies have operated through foundations and other capital intermediaries, see Hugh Wilford, The Mighty Wurlitzer (2008), and Frances Stonor Saunders, The Cultural Cold War (1999).
  13. Thomas S. Kuhn, in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962), describes how systemic strain accumulates as anomalies before becoming legible as explicit problems, with reorganization occurring only after existing paradigms can no longer accommodate underlying pressures.
  14. One way to understand these pressures is as implicit "requests" generated by the locus of the social order when existing institutions can no longer satisfy certain functions internally. In this sense, there are no startup ideas, only requests for startups.
  15. History of Google, Wikipedia.
  16. It is interesting to note that the "Page" was chosen to find the document "most like" (before LLMs) another, a useful activity for intelligence services.
  17. This included funding streams and institutional contexts that historically intersected with defense and intelligence research; see Brin & Page (1998), NSF program histories, and post–Cold War research policy analyses.
  18. Things aren't perfectly obvious looking forward, only backwards. Most founders don't have a definite vision of how all the pieces will come together, only that there is a coming dislocation (sovereignty gap), and after that there is a lot of path dependency, e.g. Google worked but AltaVista failed. You want to be "in the water" when consensus forms eventually though, and be in the right zip code when the tailwinds arrive.
  19. Also, see @Rothbard1776, "How many of you are aware prediction markets were a former DARPA project like Facebook (LifeLog) was?"
  20. In fact, DARPA's LifeLog program was discontinued on February 4th, 2004 — the exact day Facebook launcheda timing that has fueled long-running public commentary and comparisons between the two.
  21. This observation has also been noted in mainstream technology journalism; see WIRED: How the Tech Giants Created What Darpa Couldn't.
  22. Predictive History puts it slightly more explicitly.
  23. "What gap were you going after with Palantir?" — Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions.
  24. Oracle's name literally originates from a CIA project: Approved For Release 2002/08/15: CIA-RDP83T00573R000500080009-3.
  25. Imagine if we did not have AI in 2026, what the state of the American macroeconomy would be. It would be in deep recession, if not total American collapse. There was a massive growth sovereign gap that OpenAI and related companies had to plug.
  26. Bitcoin could be linked to agencies like the CIA as part of a broader intelligence strategy.
  27. See Sovereignty Gaps Appendix I: Collection of Companies Solving Sovereignty Gaps.
  28. "Private initiative is a kind of pilot, fledged into being by the intelligence agencies, more or less directly, and put through a series of tests by the finance system. Everything that appears to us in juridical forms (the only way things really can appear), whether in the form of legitimated government or private actors, is a point on a string held together to a certain degree of tension by someone in the finance system on one end and someone in the intelligence agencies on the other end (Initiative, Dennis Bouvard)."
  29. See Generative Anthropology – The Glossary. Denotes the shared locus of attention and coordination around which social order stabilizes; strain at this locus manifests as diffuse pressure before crystallizing into explicit institutional demands (Eric Gans, The Origin of Language (1981)).
  30. There is only one Source.
  31. See for example Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970). Hirschman analyzes how institutional failure is often first registered through diffuse dissatisfaction and informal exit rather than explicit voice, producing periods in which dysfunction is widely sensed but not yet publicly articulated.
  32. For early discussions of systemic risks arising from advanced artificial intelligence, see Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014); Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, Power and Progress (2023); and Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism (2019).

Last updated: 09/2026